{ "signature": "ab46f33e21eeef48d206a3320402cdb343db0f540b7d7b52118c86db208b07ca", "parsed": { "advice": "匹配依据:待预测案件与训练集原型“盗窃罪-prototype-1”共享部分定义特征,包括“theft_target=现金”“theft_location=公共场所”。但存在多处特征不匹配,如待预测案件中“theft_tool”“disposal_of_stolen_property”“stolen_property_disposal”“stolen_property_recovery”“return_of_stolen_property”等关键特征信息缺失或与原型定义特征(如“theft_tool=筷子”“disposal_of_stolen_property=全部发还”等)不一致,匹配距离为0.535。统计区间:该原型案件量为1,刑期统计区间为4.0个月(min=4.0,max=4.0,q25=4.0,q75=4.0,median=4.0)。不确定性:由于待预测案件与原型存在多个定义特征差异,且原型样本量较小(n=1),统计结果可能存在局限性,刑期预测存在不确定性。" }, "receipt": { "purpose": "3-12 held-out prototype-grounded advice cail2018-08f56c05f4baae51", "provider": "ark", "endpoint": "https://ark.cn-beijing.volces.com/api/v3", "started_at": "2026-07-30T04:41:43.942009+00:00", "latency_ms": 23748.511, "request": { "model": "doubao-seed-1-6-250615", "messages": [ { "role": "system", "content": "你是司法数据分析助手。只可使用给出的训练集案件原型统计与已抽取因素,不得使用原始训练案件、外部法律知识或自行给出其他刑期数字。解释匹配依据和统计区间,强调不确定性。只返回 JSON:{\"advice\":\"...\"}。不要写免责声明,系统会统一附加。" }, { "role": "user", "content": "HELDOUT EXTRACTED FACTORS:\n{\"charge\": \"盗窃罪\", \"surrender\": null, \"truthful_confession\": null, \"compensation_to_victim\": null, \"victim_forgiveness\": null, \"joint_crime\": false, \"criminal_record\": null, \"arrest_method\": \"被抓获\", \"return_of_stolen_property\": null, \"crime_count\": 1.0, \"crime_amount\": 2075.0, \"guilty_plea\": null, \"first_offense\": null, \"recidivism\": null, \"criminal_form\": \"既遂\", \"disposal_of_stolen_property\": null, \"victim_count\": null, \"theft_count\": 1.0, \"theft_amount\": 2075.0, \"household_theft\": false, \"stolen_property_recovery\": null, \"destructive_means\": false, \"use_special_convenience\": \"工作便利\", \"theft_method\": \"爬窗\", \"theft_target\": \"现金\", \"theft_tool\": null, \"theft_location\": \"公共场所\", \"stolen_property_disposal\": null, \"drug_user_identity\": null}\n\nMATCHED TRAINING PROTOTYPE ONLY:\n{\"prototype_id\": \"盗窃罪-prototype-1\", \"charge\": \"盗窃罪\", \"prototype_size\": 1, \"sentence_months\": {\"median\": 4.0, \"q25\": 4.0, \"q75\": 4.0, \"min\": 4.0, \"max\": 4.0}, \"defining_features\": [{\"feature\": \"cat:theft_tool=筷子\", \"z\": 18.947295321496338}, {\"feature\": \"cat:disposal_of_stolen_property=全部发还\", \"z\": 6.633249580710821}, {\"feature\": \"cat:stolen_property_disposal=返还被害人\", \"z\": 5.916079783099585}, {\"feature\": \"cat:theft_target=现金\", \"z\": 3.6606010435446397}, {\"feature\": \"cat:stolen_property_recovery=全部追回\", \"z\": 3.584153156068214}, {\"feature\": \"cat:return_of_stolen_property=全部退赃\", \"z\": 3.2015621187164305}, {\"feature\": \"cat:theft_location=公共场所\", \"z\": 3.0964875737063133}, {\"feature\": \"cat:theft_method=趁人不备\", \"z\": 2.789352578086535}], \"match_distance\": 0.5352754821097585}" } ], "temperature": 0, "seed": 37, "max_tokens": 900, "response_format": { "type": "json_object" } }, "response": { "id": "021785386504177cf2d23e4a199b9c4bf1f6d914b47619df647d1", "choices": [ { "finish_reason": "stop", "index": 0, "logprobs": null, "message": { "content": "{\"advice\":\"匹配依据:待预测案件与训练集原型“盗窃罪-prototype-1”共享部分定义特征,包括“theft_target=现金”“theft_location=公共场所”。但存在多处特征不匹配,如待预测案件中“theft_tool”“disposal_of_stolen_property”“stolen_property_disposal”“stolen_property_recovery”“return_of_stolen_property”等关键特征信息缺失或与原型定义特征(如“theft_tool=筷子”“disposal_of_stolen_property=全部发还”等)不一致,匹配距离为0.535。统计区间:该原型案件量为1,刑期统计区间为4.0个月(min=4.0,max=4.0,q25=4.0,q75=4.0,median=4.0)。不确定性:由于待预测案件与原型存在多个定义特征差异,且原型样本量较小(n=1),统计结果可能存在局限性,刑期预测存在不确定性。\"}", "refusal": null, "role": "assistant", "annotations": null, "audio": null, "function_call": null, "tool_calls": null, "reasoning_content": "\n我现在需要处理用户提供的司法数据分析请求。首先,我要仔细阅读用户给出的HELDOUT EXTRACTED FACTORS和MATCHED TRAINING PROTOTYPE ONLY的内容,然后根据要求生成JSON格式的advice。\n\n首先,用户的问题是关于盗窃罪的刑期预测,只能使用提供的训练集案件原型统计与已抽取因素,不能使用外部知识或自行给出刑期数字。需要解释匹配依据和统计区间,强调不确定性。\n\n先看HELDOUT EXTRACTED FACTORS中的因素:charge是盗窃罪,theft_target是现金,theft_location是公共场所,其他因素如theft_tool、disposal_of_stolen_property、stolen_property_disposal、stolen_property_recovery、return_of_stolen_property等都是null或未提及。\n\n然后看MATCHED TRAINING PROTOTYPE,prototype_id是盗窃罪-prototype-1,prototype_size是1,sentence_months的统计区间是median=4.0,q25=4.0,q75=4.0,min=4.0,max=4.0。defining_features里有多个特征,其中与HELDOUT因素匹配的可能是theft_target=现金和theft_location=公共场所,这两个在defining_features中z值分别为3.66和3.09,属于较高的z值,说明这两个特征在原型中是重要的定义特征。不过HELDOUT中的theft_tool是null,而原型中的theft_tool是筷子,这是不匹配的;disposal_of_stolen_property等在HELDOUT中是null,而原型中是全部发还等,也不匹配。match_distance是0.535,说明有一定匹配度但不完全匹配。\n\n接下来,匹配依据需要说明HELDOUT与原型共享的特征,即theft_target=现金和theft_location=公共场所,这两个是原型的defining features。但同时要指出存在不匹配的特征,如theft_tool(HELDOUT中为null,原型中为筷子)、disposal_of_stolen_property等(HELDOUT中未提及,原型中有具体值),这些差异可能影响匹配准确性。\n\n统计区间方面,原型的sentence_months的min、max、q25、q75、median都是4.0,所以统计区间是4.0个月(min=4.0,max=4.0,q25=4.0,q75=4.0,median=4.0)。\n\n需要强调不确定性,因为HELDOUT中存在多个原型定义特征未匹配(如theft_tool、disposal_of_stolen_property等),且原型样本量仅为1(prototype_size=1),统计结果可能存在局限性。\n\n现在组织语言,确保包含匹配依据(共享的theft_target=现金和theft_location=公共场所,以及不匹配的特征)、统计区间(4.0个月的各分位数),并强调不确定性(样本量小、特征不匹配)。\n\n最后,按照要求返回JSON格式,键为\"advice\",值为上述内容的自然语言描述,不使用Markdown,保持简洁准确。" } } ], "created": 1785386527, "model": "doubao-seed-1-6-250615", "object": "chat.completion", "service_tier": "default", "system_fingerprint": null, "usage": { "completion_tokens": 926, "prompt_tokens": 827, "total_tokens": 1753, "completion_tokens_details": { "accepted_prediction_tokens": null, "audio_tokens": null, "reasoning_tokens": 704, "rejected_prediction_tokens": null }, "prompt_tokens_details": { "audio_tokens": null, "cached_tokens": 0 } } }, "usage": { "completion_tokens": 926, "prompt_tokens": 827, "total_tokens": 1753, "completion_tokens_details": { "accepted_prediction_tokens": null, "audio_tokens": null, "reasoning_tokens": 704, "rejected_prediction_tokens": null }, "prompt_tokens_details": { "audio_tokens": null, "cached_tokens": 0 } }, "response_model": "doubao-seed-1-6-250615", "response_id": "021785386504177cf2d23e4a199b9c4bf1f6d914b47619df647d1" } }