{ "signature": "0d4f760790459e801ca99ca3e929be1187358f9d4ee0c9d0acf8e3122aea0789", "parsed": { "advice": "匹配依据:待匹配案件与训练集原型“盗窃罪-prototype-1”共享“theft_location=公共场所”“theft_method=趁人不备”两个关键特征,这两个特征在原型定义特征中具有较高z值(分别为3.096、2.789),表明与原型关联性较强。统计区间:该原型样本量为1,刑期中位数、四分位距(q25、q75)、最小值及最大值均为4.0个月。不确定性:待匹配案件存在“joint_crime=true”“crime_count=2.0”“crime_amount=11304.0”等原型未包含的因素,且原型关键特征如“theft_tool=筷子”“disposal_of_stolen_property=全部发还”等在待匹配案件中缺失或未提及,同时原型样本量较小,可能导致刑期参考存在偏差。" }, "receipt": { "purpose": "3-12 held-out prototype-grounded advice cail2018-1db01ff755764d92", "provider": "ark", "endpoint": "https://ark.cn-beijing.volces.com/api/v3", "started_at": "2026-07-30T04:41:43.941253+00:00", "latency_ms": 23873.088, "request": { "model": "doubao-seed-1-6-250615", "messages": [ { "role": "system", "content": "你是司法数据分析助手。只可使用给出的训练集案件原型统计与已抽取因素,不得使用原始训练案件、外部法律知识或自行给出其他刑期数字。解释匹配依据和统计区间,强调不确定性。只返回 JSON:{\"advice\":\"...\"}。不要写免责声明,系统会统一附加。" }, { "role": "user", "content": "HELDOUT EXTRACTED FACTORS:\n{\"charge\": \"盗窃罪\", \"surrender\": null, \"truthful_confession\": null, \"compensation_to_victim\": null, \"victim_forgiveness\": null, \"joint_crime\": true, \"criminal_record\": null, \"arrest_method\": null, \"return_of_stolen_property\": null, \"crime_count\": 2.0, \"crime_amount\": 11304.0, \"guilty_plea\": null, \"first_offense\": null, \"recidivism\": null, \"criminal_form\": \"既遂\", \"disposal_of_stolen_property\": null, \"victim_count\": 2.0, \"theft_count\": 2.0, \"theft_amount\": 11304.0, \"household_theft\": false, \"stolen_property_recovery\": null, \"destructive_means\": false, \"use_special_convenience\": \"无\", \"theft_method\": \"趁人不备\", \"theft_target\": null, \"theft_tool\": null, \"theft_location\": \"公共场所\", \"stolen_property_disposal\": null, \"drug_user_identity\": null}\n\nMATCHED TRAINING PROTOTYPE ONLY:\n{\"prototype_id\": \"盗窃罪-prototype-1\", \"charge\": \"盗窃罪\", \"prototype_size\": 1, \"sentence_months\": {\"median\": 4.0, \"q25\": 4.0, \"q75\": 4.0, \"min\": 4.0, \"max\": 4.0}, \"defining_features\": [{\"feature\": \"cat:theft_tool=筷子\", \"z\": 18.947295321496338}, {\"feature\": \"cat:disposal_of_stolen_property=全部发还\", \"z\": 6.633249580710821}, {\"feature\": \"cat:stolen_property_disposal=返还被害人\", \"z\": 5.916079783099585}, {\"feature\": \"cat:theft_target=现金\", \"z\": 3.6606010435446397}, {\"feature\": \"cat:stolen_property_recovery=全部追回\", \"z\": 3.584153156068214}, {\"feature\": \"cat:return_of_stolen_property=全部退赃\", \"z\": 3.2015621187164305}, {\"feature\": \"cat:theft_location=公共场所\", \"z\": 3.0964875737063133}, {\"feature\": \"cat:theft_method=趁人不备\", \"z\": 2.789352578086535}], \"match_distance\": 0.04937220605779228}" } ], "temperature": 0, "seed": 37, "max_tokens": 900, "response_format": { "type": "json_object" } }, "response": { "id": "021785386504173d2e580f6bb6385a445f3c475c512e9ae977333", "choices": [ { "finish_reason": "stop", "index": 0, "logprobs": null, "message": { "content": "{\"advice\":\"匹配依据:待匹配案件与训练集原型“盗窃罪-prototype-1”共享“theft_location=公共场所”“theft_method=趁人不备”两个关键特征,这两个特征在原型定义特征中具有较高z值(分别为3.096、2.789),表明与原型关联性较强。统计区间:该原型样本量为1,刑期中位数、四分位距(q25、q75)、最小值及最大值均为4.0个月。不确定性:待匹配案件存在“joint_crime=true”“crime_count=2.0”“crime_amount=11304.0”等原型未包含的因素,且原型关键特征如“theft_tool=筷子”“disposal_of_stolen_property=全部发还”等在待匹配案件中缺失或未提及,同时原型样本量较小,可能导致刑期参考存在偏差。\"}", "refusal": null, "role": "assistant", "annotations": null, "audio": null, "function_call": null, "tool_calls": null, "reasoning_content": "\n我现在需要处理用户提供的司法数据分析请求。首先,我要仔细阅读用户给出的待匹配案件的抽取因素(HELDOUT EXTRACTED FACTORS)和匹配到的训练集原型(MATCHED TRAINING PROTOTYPE ONLY)。\n\n首先,待匹配案件的罪名是“盗窃罪”,关键因素包括:theft_location=公共场所,theft_method=趁人不备,joint_crime=true,crime_count=2.0,crime_amount=11304.0,household_theft=false,destructive_means=false,use_special_convenience=无,其他如surrender、truthful_confession等均为null。\n\n然后看匹配到的原型,prototype_id是“盗窃罪-prototype-1”,原型大小为1,刑期统计是median=4.0,q25=4.0,q75=4.0,min=4.0,max=4.0,也就是只有一个案件,刑期固定为4个月。定义特征中,有几个与待匹配案件可能相关的:theft_location=公共场所(z值3.096),theft_method=趁人不备(z值2.789),这两个特征在待匹配案件中也存在(theft_location=公共场所,theft_method=趁人不备),所以这两个特征是匹配的。但原型的其他定义特征,如theft_tool=筷子、disposal_of_stolen_property=全部发还、stolen_property_disposal=返还被害人、theft_target=现金、stolen_property_recovery=全部追回、return_of_stolen_property=全部退赃等,在待匹配案件中要么是null(如theft_tool、disposal_of_stolen_property、stolen_property_disposal、stolen_property_recovery、return_of_stolen_property等),要么没有提到(theft_target)。\n\n接下来,根据用户要求,只能使用给出的训练集案件原型统计与已抽取因素,不能使用外部知识或原始案件。需要解释匹配依据和统计区间,强调不确定性。匹配依据主要是待匹配案件与原型共享的两个特征:theft_location=公共场所和theft_method=趁人不备,这两个特征在原型的定义特征中z值较高,说明是原型的重要特征。但原型的其他关键特征(如theft_tool=筷子、退赃、发还等)在待匹配案件中缺失或未提及,可能影响匹配的准确性。统计区间方面,原型的刑期中位数、四分位距、 min和max均为4.0,但原型大小仅为1,样本量小,统计结果的可靠性可能较低。不确定性体现在待匹配案件存在joint_crime=true等原型未包含的因素,且缺失原型的部分关键特征,可能导致刑期预测存在偏差。\n\n最后,按照要求返回JSON,格式为{\"advice\":\"...\"},内容包括匹配依据、统计区间、不确定性说明,不使用外部知识,不给出其他刑期数字,只基于原型的统计。" } } ], "created": 1785386527, "model": "doubao-seed-1-6-250615", "object": "chat.completion", "service_tier": "default", "system_fingerprint": null, "usage": { "completion_tokens": 853, "prompt_tokens": 830, "total_tokens": 1683, "completion_tokens_details": { "accepted_prediction_tokens": null, "audio_tokens": null, "reasoning_tokens": 654, "rejected_prediction_tokens": null }, "prompt_tokens_details": { "audio_tokens": null, "cached_tokens": 0 } } }, "usage": { "completion_tokens": 853, "prompt_tokens": 830, "total_tokens": 1683, "completion_tokens_details": { "accepted_prediction_tokens": null, "audio_tokens": null, "reasoning_tokens": 654, "rejected_prediction_tokens": null }, "prompt_tokens_details": { "audio_tokens": null, "cached_tokens": 0 } }, "response_model": "doubao-seed-1-6-250615", "response_id": "021785386504173d2e580f6bb6385a445f3c475c512e9ae977333" } }